Fool me once…

Yesterday about 11am I looked out the kitchen window and saw snow. To be sure, I looked out several other windows. Sure enough, it was snowing outside all of them.

I went to my desk and checked Accuweather. I took screen shots but apparently didn’t save them so you’ll have to trust me when I say there was no precipitation forecast for the day and nothing showing up on radar. Yet it was snowing. 

Today– THURSDAY– I see

rain is possible beginning four days from now.

This is worthless. 

A) If you can’t get what’s happening now right, why in the world would you expect me to put any faith in what you are forecasting for over 100 hours from now?

2) It’s February. You get out there on that limb and forecast rain. Go ahead!

iii) 

Look at those probability of precipitation and expected inches of precip values

Who remembers that great made-for-television movie, Cinderella? Came on once a year. Hum along with me…

Fairy Godmother: Impossible for a plain yellow pumpkin to become a golden carriage. Impossible for a plain country bumpkin and a prince to join in marriage. And four white mice will never be four white hourses. Such fol-de-rol and fiddle dee dee of courses. Impossible! But the world is full of zanies and fools who don’t believe in sensible rules and won’t believe what sensible people say.. and because these daft and dewey eyed dopes keep building up impossible hopes impossible things are happening every day!
 

Cinderella: Impossible!
 

Fairy Godmother:Impossible!
 

Cinderella: Impossible!
 

Fairy Godmother: Impossible!

Both: And because these daft and dewey eyed dopes keep building up impossible hopes impossible things are happening every day.

So this is what weather forecasting has become. It’s possible it will rain four or five days from now. We don’t think it’s very likely but it’s possible. If it doesn’t, hey we only gave it a 5% chance. And if it does, hey we told ya.

Can’t go wrong. 

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