Here’s some background. I am in a *really* bad mood. Thus, I am looking for something stupid to call out based on its stupidity.

2017 – 1999 = 18 !

I’m pretty sure the Fahrenheit scale has been around since… for about 300 years (1784). And I’m pretty sure human beings have been keeping track of the ambient temperature at about 5′ above ground level for at least about… since 1807, or before. Why, in the name of the Good Lord Jesus Christ hisself– who was crucified and rose from the dead back about 2000ish years ago this very weekend, would you limit temperature data– averages, records, and such– to the last 18 years?

Why?

To piss me off. That’s why.

*Based on data from 1999-present

I have a question (or two). Why 1999? I wouldn’t agree with using only 20 or 25 years of data, but I could understand the argument– 5-10-15-20-… 100-125-150… all useful, though meaningless, demarcations of time. But why 18 years’ worth?

It’s safe– I think– to assume that if a set of data where plotted X (time) by Y (temperature), there’s a rolling average (and median), very much dependent on the particular window one chooses to highlight.

It’s also a safe bet– even accounting for outliers and assuming a normal distribution– that the average of the range approximates the average of the individual daily values (in this case, 18 years’ worth of high and low temperatures for April 14).

Let’s look first at the lows for April 14,  1999 – April 14, 2016.

The range is 46-62°F. (46 + 62) / 2 = 54°F.

The reported average low is 51°F.  That means there were more nights colder in the years between 1999 and 2016 than you would expect if our assumption of normality had been met.

Looking at the range of high temperatures for April 14, 1999 – April 14, 2016, we see 62 – 80°F. The average of 62 and 80 is 71, four degrees less than the reported average of 75°F.

No people except people growing tomatoes care about nighttime temps. The trick is to get the right window of data to support your position.

Why 18?

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Also, if i see one more instance of, e.g., “Her child only wanted to play with their toy,” I am just going to check out and go build a hut next to the beavers and live on fruits and nuts.

Makes me remember the good old days when we said, “He or she.”